Karnataka assembly elections : ABP-CVoter, Karnataka’s first polling organization, predicted a resounding victory for Congress in the state’s 2023 assembly elections. May 10 is the designated day for the election. The BJP hopes to disrupt the tradition of Karnataka not having another consecutive administration since 1980, while the Congress seeks to capitalize on the anti-incumbency sentiment. While its most recent attempt to maintain power as a minority administration, which lasted for 429 days, failed in 2019, the JD(S) also seeks to regain control.
What, therefore, are the elements that may alter the balance to the benefit of the Congress, JD(S), or BJP in Karnataka or support their continued rule?
The perception of PM Modi with CM Bommai
The perception of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the state will be the next determining element. In line with the ABP-CVoter study, Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai fell short of what people expected, while PM Modi’s reputation has remained mostly unharmed. Despite the fact that most survey participants wished not to see CM Bommai stay in his position, they were pleased with the Centre headed by PM Modi.
Infighting
And both Congress and the BJP will undoubtedly suffer from intra-faction conflicts. Siddaramaiah of the Congress appeared to be in direct conflict with state unit president DK Shivakumar, while Yediyurappa was facing fierce resistance from party colleagues.
Yediyurappa ultimately resigned in 2021 as a result of the rage of several BJP leaders, but the animosity still rages on. Even recently, when the head of the BJP announced that his child Vijayendra would be running for the Shikaripura assembly position, CT Ravi, the party’s national secretary, remarked that candidates are chosen “not in someone’s kitchen,” but rather during meetings of the party’s parliamentary board.
Shivakumar and DK Shivakumar, the party’s state chairman, were considered serious candidates for the position of chief executive officer in the Congress. Yet, Siddaramaiah was ranked higher than even BJP candidates in the ABP-CVoter poll as the preferred option.
Siddaramaiah fought for the Lingayat to be recognized as a distinct religion while serving as the chief minister, whereas Shivakumar worked to gain support for the Vokkaliga. The Congress, however, has refuted any rumors of a split. Disputes among Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar seem to have been somewhat muted as a result of the promotion of Karnataka native Mallikarjun Kharge to the position of Congress president.
Misgovernance and Corruption
The third element that might work in the Congress’ favor and against the BJP is the purported misgovernance. According to the ABP-CVoter poll, the BJP administration has been beset by several governance challenges in the fields of Covid governance, urban expansion, and mismanagement, which have contributed to a feeling of anti-incumbency.
Congress can consider taking advantage of this chance to launch many anti-government initiatives, similar to the “PayCM” and “40% government” campaigns. The ruling party will undoubtedly worry about the consequences of these efforts. In response to the ABP-CVoter survey performed among 24,759 registered voters in Karnataka, 33.3% of respondents said they felt anti-incumbent.
Active Karnataka Politicians
The three leaders—Siddaramaiah, HD Deve Gowda, and Yediyurappa —and his son HD Kumaraswamy—are the most crucial elements. The three, renowned in the state for forming alliances, have played a crucial role in Karnataka’s politics.
The BJP learned the hard way during Yediyurappa’s temporary absence in 2012, despite Siddaramaiah’s unambiguous choice as the next chief minister in the ABP-CVoter poll, that Yediyurappa will be essential.
After that, the BJP lost 40 of its 110 seats. In order for the JD(S) to succeed in retaking power, the father-son team of HD Kumaraswamy and HD Deve Gowda would be crucial.
JD(S) As The Kingmaker And Alliances
The BJP placed second in the ABP-CVoter poll, with a predicted Congress victory. According to the study, the BJP has been predicted to win between 68 and 80 seats, whereas the Congress is predicted to win between 115 and 127. JD(S) may end up being the deciding factor with a seat margin of 23–35.
JD(S) has never built a government independently since its founding. With the BJP in 2006 and the Congress in 2018, it did, however, establish coalition administrations. Even if they didn’t split votes and upset established vote banks, smaller parties wouldn’t have much of an influence.
In the 2023 assembly elections, Kumaraswamy’s party would play a significant role, even if Congress has disqualified an alliance with the JD(S).
Residential Polarisation
According to the ABP-CVoter poll, religious polarisation was the issue people thought would have the biggest impact. This element appears to have been acknowledged by the BJP. The BJP is working hard to strike the appropriate balance since BS Yediyurappa, who has the backing of the Lingayat population, is up against fierce resistance from various party officials.
A 2% reserve for Muslims in the state’s 2B category of backward classes was eliminated, and the quota was given to the Vokkaligas and Lingayats in the 2C and 2D categories. This was done when Yediyurappa served as the party’s poll mascot. One interpretation of the action is that it is a desperate attempt to rally support for a more general “Hindutva” worldview.
Communalism and minority conciliation tactics
The Congress has blamed the BJP for bringing up divisive topics like the hijab, halal, azan, and Tipu Sultan in order to win the polls, while the BJP has accused the Congress of engaging in minority accommodation politics. The battle between the parties involved is expected to worsen throughout the campaigning period.
Factors involving Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi
The Congress will criticize the Prime Minister on various subjects, including the Adani dispute, freedom, free expression, and authoritarianism. For its part, the BJP would criticize Rahul Gandhi over his purported anti-India remarks made on foreign land and his words made when criticizing the governing party, including those made against Hindutva hero VD Savarkar.
Election Promises
Both the benefits and drawbacks of the BJP, the Congress, and the JD (S), the party in power, will be carefully examined. The opposition candidate is anticipated to respond by whining that not enough employment has been generated in the country, despite the BJP’s prior accusations that the Congress breaks its electoral pledges.
Clear mandate
The three major political parties, the BJP, the Congress, and the JD(S), will repeatedly emphasize the necessity for a clear mandate to halt the latest developments of “fragmented verdict” in elections.
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Conclusion
On May 10, Karnataka will have elections, and the results will be released on May 13 once the votes have been counted. The benefits and challenges of the three competing parties—BJP, Congress, and JD(S)—were already discussed. Right now, all that’s left to do is wait for any upcoming changes, the day, and the results.
